Cambridge · College Offer Data

Churchill Mathematics Offer Rate at Cambridge (2026 Entry)

Churchill sits among one of the toughest colleges for Mathematics at Cambridge. Our model puts the Churchill Mathematics offer rate at around 32.1%, about 2.9pp above the Cambridge Mathematics average of 29.2%. The course runs at 7.1 applications per place across Cambridge in the latest cycle (2024). Strong applicants tend to score TMUA 7.3–8.5 on the new 1.0–9.0 scale. STEM-leaning college. Counter-intuitive: Computer Science is one of the WORST CS odds at Cambridge (4.7% in 2022) because it is heavily over-applied.

Modelled offer rate32.1%Course base rate 29.2% × college effect 1.10x. From Cambridge Undergraduate Admissions Statistics (2024 cycle) + college-level multipliers in our public dataset.

Applications per place

7.1

University average offer rate

29.2%

College multiplier

1.10x

Successful TMUA range

7.3–8.5

Place / application yield

14.1%

Interview-to-offer conversion

36%

How Churchill compares

By contrast, Trinity Mathematics sits at around 18.7% — 13.4pp lower than Churchill. Same course, different applicant pool. If you're flexible on college, the difference compounds with your TMUA and grade profile.

TMUA score to target

For Churchill Mathematics, plan for TMUA in the 7.3–8.5 band on the 1.0–9.0 scale. The college applicant pool is self-selected, so the applicant pool sits at the top of the published range.

Our predictor uses the official Cambridge / Oxford college multipliers alongside your TMUA, predicted grades, school type and contextual flag. Drag a slider, watch the percentage change in real time. No email gate.

What actually decides the offer

STEP grades are the binding constraint. About 48% of Cambridge Mathematics offer-holders convert to a place — the other half miss STEP 2 or STEP 3. TMUA / ESAT screen for the interview; the offer itself is conditional on STEP 1,1.

Common reasons applicants get rejected

Below A*A*A predicted (or Further Maths not taken where school offers it)
STEP papers not on the timetable — Cambridge will not waive
Personal statement vague rather than mathematical (no engagement with reading, problem-solving, olympiads)
Inability to reason through novel problems live in interview

See your full offer probability

Add your grades and TMUA to the calculator. Pre-filled for Churchill Mathematics, takes about 60 seconds.

Run my profile

Please wait while we set up your experience